Analysis of Factors Influencing General Cargo Prices: Based on a Causal Diagram

Abstract

Along with the bloom of foreign trade between China and “Maritime Silk Road” related country, shipping becomes increasingly important. In recent years, with the rise of Chinese creation, the export of industrial general cargo from China to the Belt and Road countries has gradually increased. Therefore, it is essential for general cargo shippers to grasp the causality of the change of general cargo shipping price. This paper constructs two causal loop diagrams of the factors influencing the general cargo shipping prices from China to Belt and Road countries using anylogic software, and explains the causes of the changes in the general cargo shipping prices from the cost-profit perspective and the capacity-demand perspective respectively. The model results show that the cost-profit subsystem reflects the changes in the psychological expectations of shipowners and charterers in the market, and the capacity-demand subsystem shows the game between the demand side and the supply side in the market.